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Post by igibb on Jul 13, 2021 15:08:19 GMT -7
100% agree that this is all about cap hit since this is the most important asset in a flat cap world that will stay flat until after keith's contract expires. with this in mind, name me any 38yr old vet (or similar age) with a $5M+ cap hit (or similar) that has been traded for assets that hasnt had some of his cap retained? I honestly cant think of one? Put it another way, If Keith was to become a UFA this season, how much do you think any team would offer him salary-wise?? I'm guessing there would be several teams interested in him and it might even create a bidding war, but do you honestly think anyone would give him a $5M+ x 2yr contract? cos i dont! instead, we are on the hook for $5.4M for 2 yrs and we gave up a 3rd for the privilege(I'm ignoring Jones as people use him to deflect the argument)? What were CHI's other options? without KH bailing them out, their only other hope would be Seattle takes him in expansion so they get rid of the cap hit but then get nothing in return (but remember Keith has full NMC so would also have to agree to this and he could easily pull a Hall and say i only want to go to EDM and then Chi is Flames sucked just like buffalo were). A reasonable trade would have been Keith to edmonton for a 3rd and Chi retains 50% salary. if they want to expand it to add jones for soderlund, knock themselves out, but the key as you correctly point out is the salary retention. that extra $2.7M would buy us a good 3-4th line UFA, or go considerably towards a top goalie or top 6 winger. Paying Keith $5.4M is the same as paying Russell $4M, its about $2.7M more than what they're worth. Russell is no longer a problem but he has now taken 2 steps back with this. same old same old oilers, 1 step forward, 2 steps back! Its been several decades since I could honestly say Wow! Edmonton sure fleeced that team! unfortunately its quite the opposite when It comes to people saying Wow, that team sure fleeced Edm! TBH I'm sick to death of hearing it and I'm not talking biased fan bases, I'm talking NHL insiders! I guarantee you Duncan Keith does more to make this a winning team than ANY $2.7m 3-4th line player would. The point you seem to be glossing over is the Hawks didn't have to trade Keith. No where was it stated he demanded a trade. I highly doubt if they had gone back to him and said we can't get what we need for you he would have done anything but be a good solider and finished his career in Chicago.
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Post by SuperDave17 on Jul 13, 2021 15:10:38 GMT -7
I never have and never will register an HF Boards account. But I look over there once in a while, especially when something like this occurs.
Man, they're really going ape over the trade. The objection to no retention, I think any reasonable fan would bring that up.
But a lot of them make it sound like we gave up the next Klefbom in waiting (meaning Caleb Jones) for two years of Ferrence brought back from the dead. Please, he was struggling to make it work on the third pairing at times, and I'm still not convinced he'll stick in the NHL.
Seems like the decade of darkness really has conditioned a lot of fans to believe Nostradamus was speaking only about the Oilers, lol.
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Post by drtaf on Jul 13, 2021 15:24:24 GMT -7
I guarantee you Duncan Keith does more to make this a winning team than ANY $2.7m 3-4th line player would. The point you seem to be glossing over is the Hawks didn't have to trade Keith. No where was it stated he demanded a trade. I highly doubt if they had gone back to him and said we can't get what we need for you he would have done anything but be a good solider and finished his career in Chicago. Actually he did ask for a trade and he specifically said Edmonton was his desired choice as he wants to be closer to his son in Penticton and EDM provided proximity and chance to be on a competitive team. You are correct he would provide more than a 3-4th line $2.7M player would, but the reality is he's a 38yr old $5.4M player, so what's your point? I've already stated I would have welcomed Keith at $2.7M (with chi retaining 50%). Yes, Chi could have told him to go suck an egg, but he has a full NMC so when they would have inevitably asked him to waive it so that Seattle could take his cap off their hands, he could have reciprocated in kind. Unless you've been living under a rock, this whole thing has been orchestrated by the hawks so that they can go hard after Seth Jones. Whether they get him or not remains to be seen, but its funny that Chi wants to move on from Keith and replace him with Jones, if Keith is supposedly still that good, because i can guarantee you, Jones is going to cost a lot more in salary cap than keith (although ironically this year it will be the same, but Jones is heading for a substantial pay rise). One team moved substantially towards their ultimate objective after this trade and it sure as heck wasn't Edmonton
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Post by sharptooth on Jul 13, 2021 15:27:57 GMT -7
I see a lot of overreacting everywhere. Duncan Keith is in many leagues higher then ferrence. The comparison is laughable. The guy is going to bring some things we have not had in a very long time. Not to say I like how the details are of the trade but I think he is going to be better then any d we have right now other then Nurse.
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Post by igibb on Jul 13, 2021 15:35:35 GMT -7
Actually he did ask for a trade and he specifically said Edmonton was his desired choice as he wants to be closer to his son in Penticton and EDM provided proximity and chance to be on a competitive team. You are correct he would provide more than a 3-4th line $2.7M player would, but the reality is he's a 38yr old $5.4M player, so what's your point? I've already stated I would have welcomed Keith at $2.7M (with chi retaining 50%). Yes, Chi could have told him to go suck an egg, but he has a full NMC so when they would have inevitably asked him to waive it so that Seattle could take his cap off their hands, he could have reciprocated in kind. Unless you've been living under a rock, this whole thing has been orchestrated by the hawks so that they can go hard after Seth Jones. Whether they get him or not remains to be seen, but its funny that Chi wants to move on from Keith and replace him with Jones, if Keith is supposedly still that good, because i can guarantee you, Jones is going to cost a lot more in salary cap than keith (although ironically this year it will be the same, but Jones is heading for a substantial pay rise). One team moved substantially towards their ultimate objective after this trade and it sure as heck wasn't Edmonton Asked and demanded are two very different things.
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Post by neufab94 on Jul 13, 2021 15:50:14 GMT -7
Dam... quite the action on this forum... it's fun to see where things go from here.
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Post by igibb on Jul 13, 2021 16:00:41 GMT -7
The part I don't get is people acting like we were not going to be on the hook for another $3.5-4 M minimum for a top 4 dman if we didn't get Keith (or $4.1 M if Klef was back). There was zero chance we were going into next season with the same group of left D if Klef was not back and if we did we would have been in HUGE trouble. So the narrative of having and extra $2.7M to spend on a forward is not really based in reality. It's more likely we would have had about $1.5 M ish. So unless Keith is a total bust I am paying $1.5M all day long for his experience.
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Post by yuke on Jul 13, 2021 16:07:15 GMT -7
Actually he did ask for a trade and he specifically said Edmonton was his desired choice as he wants to be closer to his son in Penticton and EDMÂ provided proximity and chance to be on a competitive team. You are correct he would provide more than a 3-4th line $2.7M player would, but the reality is he's a 38yr old $5.4M player, so what's your point? I've already stated I would have welcomed Keith at $2.7M (with chi retaining 50%). Yes, Chi could have told him to go suck an egg, but he has a full NMC so when they would have inevitably asked him to waive it so that Seattle could take his cap off their hands, he could have reciprocated in kind. Unless you've been living under a rock, this whole thing has been orchestrated by the hawks so that they can go hard after Seth Jones. Whether they get him or not remains to be seen, but its funny that Chi wants to move on from Keith and replace him with Jones, if Keith is supposedly still that good, because i can guarantee you, Jones is going to cost a lot more in salary cap than keith (although ironically this year it will be the same, but Jones is heading for a substantial pay rise). One team moved substantially towards their ultimate objective after this trade and it sure as heck wasn't Edmonton Seth Jones will want 7/8 year contract. The plan for Edmonton is to have Bouchard and Broberg playing for much cheaper in a couple years. Then there is Samurokov? Etc. No way do the Oilers want to be tied down to a huge contract, if they did, Barrie would be signed. |
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Post by happyhappy on Jul 13, 2021 17:42:37 GMT -7
Welcome to the Oilers Duncan!!  |
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Post by Bronco73 on Jul 13, 2021 18:14:56 GMT -7
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Post by FloridaAltFan on Jul 13, 2021 18:53:33 GMT -7
It's a good pickup for Edmonton. He's got Stanley Cup and Canada Cup experience. Dressing room leadership is what I think the Oil bought here. I think it's needed, I think at this point in his career he'll calm the players in the dressing room and perhaps give them more swagger. We'll see...
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Post by discostew on Jul 13, 2021 20:36:37 GMT -7
The really elite defenseman can often play a lot longer cause being smarter on the ice. Will see
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Post by drtaf on Jul 14, 2021 7:54:51 GMT -7
The part I don't get is people acting like we were not going to be on the hook for another $3.5-4 M minimum for a top 4 dman if we didn't get Keith (or $4.1 M if Klef was back). There was zero chance we were going into next season with the same group of left D if Klef was not back and if we did we would have been in HUGE trouble. So the narrative of having and extra $2.7M to spend on a forward is not really based in reality. It's more likely we would have had about $1.5 M ish. So unless Keith is a total bust I am paying $1.5M all day long for his experience. This is all true igibb and the news Klef is "definitely" not playing this year (as per KH) so that his LTIR will pay most of Keith's cap, changes the storyline somewhat, but the fact remains that KH held all the cards and in every prior case of a team wanting to shed a cap hit, one of 3 things happens: team shedding cap either: 1. adds the sweetener, 2. retains portion of cap, or 3. takes a bad contract back. given keith expressed that Edm was his 1st choice landing spot and he has a NMC, I think KH could have held the gun to Bowman's head (like Boston did to buffalo with Hall). Instead, when he asked to add kosk to the deal Bowman said "no". That's the point when I "personally" hang up the phone and wait for Bowman to crawl back knowing he has very few (as in almost zero)options. People on here are misunderstanding why i hate this deal. It's not because I dont think keith can play 2-3rd pair D and be a great mentor to our own young D, it's not because I believe Jones will be a top 4 D (he's played 93 NHL games so far). It's simply because its terrible asset management(cap space). KH could have and should have got Chi to accept any one of the 3 conditions outlined above, he held all the cards. This is a dog eat dog business and IMO there is no room to be doing other teams favours. instead, in this dog eat dog world, I'm beginning to believe KH is the friendly old Golden Lab and the rest of the GMs are Pittbulls, Doberman's and attack dogs and when it comes to feeding, the other "big dogs" take the choice meat and we're left with the table scraps and KH gleefully wags his tail for them.
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Post by igibb on Jul 14, 2021 8:56:53 GMT -7
The part I don't get is people acting like we were not going to be on the hook for another $3.5-4 M minimum for a top 4 dman if we didn't get Keith (or $4.1 M if Klef was back). There was zero chance we were going into next season with the same group of left D if Klef was not back and if we did we would have been in HUGE trouble. So the narrative of having and extra $2.7M to spend on a forward is not really based in reality. It's more likely we would have had about $1.5 M ish. So unless Keith is a total bust I am paying $1.5M all day long for his experience. This is all true igibb and the news Klef is "definitely" not playing this year (as per KH) so that his LTIR will pay most of Keith's cap, changes the storyline somewhat, but the fact remains that KH held all the cards and in every prior case of a team wanting to shed a cap hit, one of 3 things happens: team shedding cap either: 1. adds the sweetener, 2. retains portion of cap, or 3. takes a bad contract back. given keith expressed that Edm was his 1st choice landing spot and he has a NMC, I think KH could have held the gun to Bowman's head (like Boston did to buffalo with Hall). Instead, when he asked to add kosk to the deal Bowman said "no". That's the point when I "personally" hang up the phone and wait for Bowman to crawl back knowing he has very few (as in almost zero)options. People on here are misunderstanding why i hate this deal. It's not because I dont think keith can play 2-3rd pair D and be a great mentor to our own young D, it's not because I believe Jones will be a top 4 D (he's played 93 NHL games so far). It's simply because its terrible asset management(cap space). KH could have and should have got Chi to accept any one of the 3 conditions outlined above, he held all the cards. This is a dog eat dog business and IMO there is no room to be doing other teams favours. instead, in this dog eat dog world, I'm beginning to believe KH is the friendly old Golden Lab and the rest of the GMs are Pittbulls, Doberman's and attack dogs and when it comes to feeding, the other "big dogs" take the choice meat and we're left with the table scraps and KH gleefully wags his tail for them. My point is you are acting like this team is one $2M dollar player away from being a contender this year or next and if we had that extra money everything would be set. We are not. It's been 5 seasons since we last won a real playoff game. We are not contending for the cup in the next 2 seasons with or without the extra money we could have shaved off this deal. If we were one win away from making the final I would say this was a terrible deal but lets maybe worry about winning a single playoff game first. You are making a way bigger deal out of this than it really is. If this was a 5 or 6 year deal I could see the problem but it's 2.
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Post by neufab94 on Jul 14, 2021 9:39:04 GMT -7
This is all true igibb and the news Klef is "definitely" not playing this year (as per KH) so that his LTIR will pay most of Keith's cap, changes the storyline somewhat, but the fact remains that KH held all the cards and in every prior case of a team wanting to shed a cap hit, one of 3 things happens: team shedding cap either: 1. adds the sweetener, 2. retains portion of cap, or 3. takes a bad contract back. given keith expressed that Edm was his 1st choice landing spot and he has a NMC, I think KH could have held the gun to Bowman's head (like Boston did to buffalo with Hall). Instead, when he asked to add kosk to the deal Bowman said "no". That's the point when I "personally" hang up the phone and wait for Bowman to crawl back knowing he has very few (as in almost zero)options. People on here are misunderstanding why i hate this deal. It's not because I dont think keith can play 2-3rd pair D and be a great mentor to our own young D, it's not because I believe Jones will be a top 4 D (he's played 93 NHL games so far). It's simply because its terrible asset management(cap space). KH could have and should have got Chi to accept any one of the 3 conditions outlined above, he held all the cards. This is a dog eat dog business and IMO there is no room to be doing other teams favours. instead, in this dog eat dog world, I'm beginning to believe KH is the friendly old Golden Lab and the rest of the GMs are Pittbulls, Doberman's and attack dogs and when it comes to feeding, the other "big dogs" take the choice meat and we're left with the table scraps and KH gleefully wags his tail for them. My point is you are acting like this team is one $2M dollar player away from being a contender this year or next and if we had that extra money everything would be set. We are not. It's been 5 seasons since we last won a real playoff game. We are not contending for the cup in the next 2 seasons with or without the extra money we could have shaved off this deal. If we were one win away from making the final I would say this was a terrible deal but lets maybe worry about winning a single playoff game first. You are making a way bigger deal out of this than it really is. If this was a 5 or 6 year deal I could see the problem but it's 2. Why is it that you think the Oilers are so far away from being a contender? We have the top 2 forwards in the league for a few consecutive years now and I think the team has made large strides in its development of young players. There is no reason to think that other teams can have young players burst into the league but the Oilers cannot. For the first time in years there is a legit possibility of it both with our up and coming forwards and defense, Holloway and Bouchard leading the probability but it's not isolated to those 2. I have come around and like that the Oilers added Keith because it will help the defense but I don't like the deal because of "asset management." The deal in and of itself lacked creativity. Cap space is a coveted asset. The Oilers do still need a couple of pieces to become the contender you say they aren't but to become that contender they need cap space to finish filling in the holes. As such, the holes could be filled in one off season with sufficient cap space and combine that with a youngster or 2 bursting into the league and suddenly the Oilers are the team that you say they aren't. Would that not put us above the Islanders who gave Tampa more than they expected and that not put us above the Habs who lack top end talent? Under that scenario the Oilers should not fear any team in the NHL. I think that Smith has one more year left so the time is now! I say go all in for this year because afterwards the Oilers have goaltending issues and then the outlook is worse than it is today.
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Post by Marshall Bruce Mathers III on Jul 14, 2021 10:00:53 GMT -7
My point is you are acting like this team is one $2M dollar player away from being a contender this year or next and if we had that extra money everything would be set. We are not. It's been 5 seasons since we last won a real playoff game. We are not contending for the cup in the next 2 seasons with or without the extra money we could have shaved off this deal. If we were one win away from making the final I would say this was a terrible deal but lets maybe worry about winning a single playoff game first. You are making a way bigger deal out of this than it really is. If this was a 5 or 6 year deal I could see the problem but it's 2. Why is it that you think the Oilers are so far away from being a contender? We have the top 2 forwards in the league for a few consecutive years now and I think the team has made large strides in its development of young players. There is no reason to think that other teams can have young players burst into the league but the Oilers cannot. For the first time in years there is a legit possibility of it both with our up and coming forwards and defense, Holloway and Bouchard leading the probability but it's not isolated to those 2. I have come around and like that the Oilers added Keith because it will help the defense but I don't like the deal because of "asset management." The deal in and of itself lacked creativity. Cap space is a coveted asset. The Oilers do still need a couple of pieces to become the contender you say they aren't but to become that contender they need cap space to finish filling in the holes. As such, the holes could be filled in one off season with sufficient cap space and combine that with a youngster or 2 bursting into the league and suddenly the Oilers are the team that you say they aren't. Would that not put us above the Islanders who gave Tampa more than they expected and that not put us above the Habs who lack top end talent? Under that scenario the Oilers should not fear any team in the NHL. I think that Smith has one more year left so the time is now! I say go all in for this year because afterwards the Oilers have goaltending issues and then the outlook is worse than it is today. He didn't mean SO far away. He meant not within the next 2 years. I think we're about 5-6 skaters and 1 goalie away from being a real contender. Top 6 LW, bottom 6 centre, two or three bottom 6 wingers, one or two more defenders. It'll take a couple years to properly acquire said players, and another year or two to build some sort of chemistry. Keith is a good stop gap. His playoff experience and mentorship will be invaluable to our D core. Sent from my LE2110 using Tapatalk |
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Post by neufab94 on Jul 14, 2021 10:16:34 GMT -7
Why is it that you think the Oilers are so far away from being a contender? We have the top 2 forwards in the league for a few consecutive years now and I think the team has made large strides in its development of young players. There is no reason to think that other teams can have young players burst into the league but the Oilers cannot. For the first time in years there is a legit possibility of it both with our up and coming forwards and defense, Holloway and Bouchard leading the probability but it's not isolated to those 2. I have come around and like that the Oilers added Keith because it will help the defense but I don't like the deal because of "asset management." The deal in and of itself lacked creativity. Cap space is a coveted asset. The Oilers do still need a couple of pieces to become the contender you say they aren't but to become that contender they need cap space to finish filling in the holes. As such, the holes could be filled in one off season with sufficient cap space and combine that with a youngster or 2 bursting into the league and suddenly the Oilers are the team that you say they aren't. Would that not put us above the Islanders who gave Tampa more than they expected and that not put us above the Habs who lack top end talent? Under that scenario the Oilers should not fear any team in the NHL. I think that Smith has one more year left so the time is now! I say go all in for this year because afterwards the Oilers have goaltending issues and then the outlook is worse than it is today. He didn't mean SO far away. He meant not within the next 2 years. I think we're about 5-6 skaters and 1 goalie away from being a real contender. Top 6 LW, bottom 6 centre, two or three bottom 6 wingers, one or two more defenders. It'll take a couple years to properly acquire said players, and another year or two to build some sort of chemistry. Keith is a good stop gap. His playoff experience and mentorship will be invaluable to our D core. Sent from my LE2110 using Tapatalk I understand and say why not in the next 2 years? The scenario I outlined could have the Oilers a legitimate threat this year. I do NOT think that McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse or any key Oiler, add in Keith, would accept the assessment that the time is "later."
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Post by Marshall Bruce Mathers III on Jul 14, 2021 10:19:53 GMT -7
He didn't mean SO far away. He meant not within the next 2 years. I think we're about 5-6 skaters and 1 goalie away from being a real contender. Top 6 LW, bottom 6 centre, two or three bottom 6 wingers, one or two more defenders. It'll take a couple years to properly acquire said players, and another year or two to build some sort of chemistry. Keith is a good stop gap. His playoff experience and mentorship will be invaluable to our D core. Sent from my LE2110 using Tapatalk I understand and say why not in the next 2 years? The scenario I outlined could have the Oilers a legitimate threat this year. I do NOT think that McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse or any key Oiler, add in Keith, would accept the assessment that the time is "later." Yeah we'll do good because we ride McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nurse like no tomorrow. But that only goes so far. If we want to be a real threat we need to replace AT LEAST half of our bottom six, add another top 6 winger, and another defender. That's, in my opinion, the bare minimum. Sent from my LE2110 using Tapatalk |
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Post by neufab94 on Jul 14, 2021 10:40:59 GMT -7
I understand and say why not in the next 2 years? The scenario I outlined could have the Oilers a legitimate threat this year. I do NOT think that McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse or any key Oiler, add in Keith, would accept the assessment that the time is "later." Yeah we'll do good because we ride McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nurse like no tomorrow. But that only goes so far. If we want to be a real threat we need to replace AT LEAST half of our bottom six, add another top 6 winger, and another defender. That's, in my opinion, the bare minimum. Sent from my LE2110 using Tapatalk I agree with that and think that it is possible to accomplish this in 1 off season. Add a top 6 LW and another defender, as well as bottom 6 players - some of which we may already have.
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Post by igibb on Jul 14, 2021 10:44:14 GMT -7
My point is you are acting like this team is one $2M dollar player away from being a contender this year or next and if we had that extra money everything would be set. We are not. It's been 5 seasons since we last won a real playoff game. We are not contending for the cup in the next 2 seasons with or without the extra money we could have shaved off this deal. If we were one win away from making the final I would say this was a terrible deal but lets maybe worry about winning a single playoff game first. You are making a way bigger deal out of this than it really is. If this was a 5 or 6 year deal I could see the problem but it's 2. Why is it that you think the Oilers are so far away from being a contender? We have the top 2 forwards in the league for a few consecutive years now and I think the team has made large strides in its development of young players. There is no reason to think that other teams can have young players burst into the league but the Oilers cannot. For the first time in years there is a legit possibility of it both with our up and coming forwards and defense, Holloway and Bouchard leading the probability but it's not isolated to those 2. I have come around and like that the Oilers added Keith because it will help the defense but I don't like the deal because of "asset management." The deal in and of itself lacked creativity. Cap space is a coveted asset. The Oilers do still need a couple of pieces to become the contender you say they aren't but to become that contender they need cap space to finish filling in the holes. As such, the holes could be filled in one off season with sufficient cap space and combine that with a youngster or 2 bursting into the league and suddenly the Oilers are the team that you say they aren't. Would that not put us above the Islanders who gave Tampa more than they expected and that not put us above the Habs who lack top end talent? Under that scenario the Oilers should not fear any team in the NHL. I think that Smith has one more year left so the time is now! I say go all in for this year because afterwards the Oilers have goaltending issues and then the outlook is worse than it is today. Why, because we had a losing record against 2 of the 3 playoff teams in our division last year and were swept by the team that we didn't. We are relying on a 40yr old goalie. Our "#1" D man has played that way for a grand total of about 40 games. We have a terrible bottom 6 that leaks goals against. We have 2 elite forwards, 1 good forward and 1 looking like he will be good going forward and then a crap shoot after that. We don't need a youngster or two to burst onto the scene we need about 4 of them to do it and a couple of other young player to improve their game substantially to push this team to the next level. I mentioned it last year that this team was not close and our record was built on beating Cal, Ott and Van and I got replies like "no one else swept the Sens". Well we didn't play the Sens in the playoffs and we will be facing much harder competition in the playoffs this year. As Marshall said I don't think we are years away but the thinking that we are going to populate our bottom 6 with Rookies and Sophmores and ride a 40yr old goalie for an 82 game season and a playoff run or that $2.7M in cap space was going to mean we could is ludicous. This team probably needs 2-3 more years to develop some young players and do something/anything in the playoffs to build some confidence.
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