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Post by windsoroiler on Apr 1, 2022 10:42:13 GMT -7
Yep we are too quick to say we are fine. I want to be positive and not thread crap. I also have some superstitions like not putting the cart before the horse. Glad we are playing meaningful hockey, we have a tough schedule to finish the season, as happy pointed out Vegas has an easy schedule. We win our games we are in but they are almost all tough games. LA is battling and getting points in almost all of their games. Not much else to say, it's going to be a battle. Odds favor the teams with an easier schedule. I didn't say we are fine, and I didn't intend for it to sound like we are. What I am saying is that this team controls it's own destiny this year. We don't have to rely on another team to win or lose in order to put us into the picture, we are already there. But yes we do. We do need other teams to play ok or poorly. We have a tough schedule, other teams have a much easier schedule so if you are into analytics it comes down to probabilities. IE we have the two best scorers in McD and Drai but does that trump two very good scorers but Selkie type two way players in Kop and Danault? The end result is you have a better chance controlling your own destiny against weaker teams vs stronger teams the rest of the way. Some of our competition has the easier schedule which ups their odds even though they might be behind at the moment.... Just pointing out the obvious and not trying to be a turd.
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onebit
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Posts: 291
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Post by onebit on Apr 1, 2022 10:58:22 GMT -7
I didn't say we are fine, and I didn't intend for it to sound like we are. What I am saying is that this team controls it's own destiny this year. We don't have to rely on another team to win or lose in order to put us into the picture, we are already there. But yes we do. We do need other teams to play ok or poorly. We have a tough schedule, other teams have a much easier schedule so if you are into analytics it comes down to probabilities. IE we have the two best scorers in McD and Drai but does that trump two very good scorers but Selkie type two way players in Kop and Danault? The end result is you have a better chance controlling your own destiny against weaker teams vs stronger teams the rest of the way. Some of our competition has the easier schedule which ups their odds even though they might be behind at the moment.... Just pointing out the obvious and not trying to be a turd. I'm with you Windsor. If all things were equal, I would give the edge to the Kings. The reason I didn't is because of their injury list. When we had injury issues earlier in the year, our replacement players held their own for a while but eventually, we saw the reasons that they aren't every day NHL players and we dropped like a rock in the standings. I "expect" LA to suffer the same fate and the longer their injury woes continue, the less probable their "replacements" will be able to over-achieve. IMHO, it's going to be close; very close but I really think the Oilers will outlast the Kings by 2 - 3 points at the finish line. If the Kings get healthy fast, my attitude could change faster than Will Smith laughing at a Chris Rock joke.
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Post by windsoroiler on Apr 1, 2022 11:46:26 GMT -7
But yes we do. We do need other teams to play ok or poorly. We have a tough schedule, other teams have a much easier schedule so if you are into analytics it comes down to probabilities. IE we have the two best scorers in McD and Drai but does that trump two very good scorers but Selkie type two way players in Kop and Danault? The end result is you have a better chance controlling your own destiny against weaker teams vs stronger teams the rest of the way. Some of our competition has the easier schedule which ups their odds even though they might be behind at the moment.... Just pointing out the obvious and not trying to be a turd. I'm with you Windsor. If all things were equal, I would give the edge to the Kings. The reason I didn't is because of their injury list. When we had injury issues earlier in the year, our replacement players held their own for a while but eventually, we saw the reasons that they aren't every day NHL players and we dropped like a rock in the standings. I "expect" LA to suffer the same fate and the longer their injury woes continue, the less probable their "replacements" will be able to over-achieve. IMHO, it's going to be close; very close but I really think the Oilers will outlast the Kings by 2 - 3 points at the finish line. If the Kings get healthy fast, my attitude could change faster than Will Smith laughing at a Chris Rock joke. I don't expect LA to suffer the same fate. Their team game is what we are trying to achieve (checking and defense)and that Durzi kid is playing like something else. They don't need their replacements as much as we would think.... they keep getting points As long as we keep pace it IS fine but we have the tougher schedul so it does make a difference.
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 1, 2022 11:47:17 GMT -7
I am not looking at what other teams are doing yet. We've got 81 points in 68 games. IMO we need to get 15 points in the remaining 14 games and we'll be in. If it looks like we're not going to get there, then I'll be scoreboard watching. If we take care of our business it won't matter what anyone else is doing. Fwiw, after Monday's win, www.sportsclubstats.com had us at 82.9% to make the playoffs. Their math is pretty dialed.
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Post by Bronco73 on Apr 1, 2022 12:51:50 GMT -7
I didn't say we are fine, and I didn't intend for it to sound like we are. What I am saying is that this team controls it's own destiny this year. We don't have to rely on another team to win or lose in order to put us into the picture, we are already there. But yes we do. We do need other teams to play ok or poorly. We have a tough schedule, other teams have a much easier schedule so if you are into analytics it comes down to probabilities. IE we have the two best scorers in McD and Drai but does that trump two very good scorers but Selkie type two way players in Kop and Danault? The end result is you have a better chance controlling your own destiny against weaker teams vs stronger teams the rest of the way. Some of our competition has the easier schedule which ups their odds even though they might be behind at the moment.... Just pointing out the obvious and not trying to be a turd. lol no I know. But to put it bluntly, we are in a spot now. It doesn't matter what the other teams do, if we win we are in regardless of what they do. The team doesn't have to rely on what anybody else does unless we lose games. That's why the team controls it's own fate right now.
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Post by mrtea on Apr 1, 2022 13:30:41 GMT -7
We do have a tough schedule, that is a fact. The Oilers have shown lately that they can play a good team game, and when they do they usually win. Recently we did beat the depleted Kings in OT, who then beat the Flames in another tight game. We recently got badly beaten by those same flames 9-5. That game we fell back into bad habits and lost because of it. The important thing to remember is that we were staying even with them until late in the 2nd period when the Oilers completely abandoned any concept of defense.
The point I'm trying to make is that we can play with and beat good teams when we are playing a good team game. They have done it already this season and they can do it again as long as Woodcroft can keep them playing the right way.
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Post by blackhawk216 on Apr 1, 2022 14:00:57 GMT -7
I am not looking at what other teams are doing yet. We've got 81 points in 68 games. IMO we need to get 15 points in the remaining 14 games and we'll be in. If it looks like we're not going to get there, then I'll be scoreboard watching. If we take care of our business it won't matter what anyone else is doing. Fwiw, after Monday's win, www.sportsclubstats.com had us at 82.9% to make the playoffs. Their math is pretty dialed. I think Fogs has a valid point here.........as if we can get to 96 pts, which is 15 pts in our remaining 14 games, ie 1.07 pts per game (and we have been going at a rate of 1.19 pts per game now for 68 games), then our nearest rivals to take a top 3 place from us in the Pacific, ie Vegas, will then need 18 or possibly 19 pts from their last 13 games to surpass us, (depending upon the RW count up) and that means they will have to collect points at a rate of 1.46 pts per game, which is a big ask (regardless of who they have to play) as so far this season, after 69 games played, they are going along at a rate of only 1.13 pts per game. Hence as Fogs states, 96 points is a good target for us to aim at, and if achieved, will make it very hard for Vegas to surpass us in the division. Not often I agree with Fogs .........but on this occasion, I am inclined to agree with his maths. Well done fogolin2!. I feel much better now. We could actually finish with 14 overtime losses and still make it . 95 pts could squeeze us in, and possibly will.
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onebit
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Posts: 291
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Post by onebit on Apr 1, 2022 14:05:00 GMT -7
We do have a tough schedule, that is a fact. The Oilers have shown lately that they can play a good team game, and when they do they usually win. Recently we did beat the depleted Kings in OT, who then beat the Flames in another tight game. We recently got badly beaten by those same flames 9-5. That game we fell back into bad habits and lost because of it. The important thing to remember is that we were staying even with them until late in the 2nd period when the Oilers completely abandoned any concept of defense. The point I'm trying to make is that we can play with and beat good teams when we are playing a good team game. They have done it already this season and they can do it again as long as Woodcroft can keep them playing the right way. We've seen glimpses of greatness over the past 2 years but what we haven't seen is consistency. That said, we're starting to see a little more of that as the stretch run goes on. Yes, the Flames game sucked but we are still 7-2-1 over our last 10 and frankly, had they not gone to sleep against CGY in the third, I think we could have been 8 - 1 - 1. Some big games coming up and you know what they say... "if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best". Time to find out where on the spectrum this team belongs.
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Post by happyhappy on Apr 2, 2022 6:23:56 GMT -7
Fugly win last night vs the Blues but we'll take it. 2 more precious points in the bank. Colorado, Calgary, and Minnesota are pretty much locks for playoffs in the west and we could probably include the Blues but I won't just yet. I crunched some numbers this morn and using 95 points as the playoff line (though that won't necessarily be the line it will be close) the other 6 teams battling for the remaining 5 spots need to achieve this to get there: -The race to 95pts-
St.Louis 5-9-1 Nashville 6-7-1 Edmonton 6-7-0 L.A. 5-6-1 Dallas 8-8-0 Vegas 7-4-1
Jets would have to go 9-3-1 so I'm going to say they are out of the race. One of the teams listed above is gonna miss the cut and I really don't care who it is as long as it ain't us. What a tight race, great stuff.
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 2, 2022 11:13:43 GMT -7
Didn't see the game last night but the score makes me kinda want to watch it, but kinda not....
Big 2 points though! 13 points to go, with 13 games left. Looking better.
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onebit
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Post by onebit on Apr 2, 2022 18:57:30 GMT -7
No scoreboard help today. Kings win, Wild win, Stars win and Blues win. Gonna have to take care of business on our own. GOG!!!
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onebit
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Post by onebit on Apr 4, 2022 22:45:51 GMT -7
Can't believe I'm saying this but... thank you Flames. I need a shower now.
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Post by sharptooth on Apr 5, 2022 18:21:47 GMT -7
Can't believe I'm saying this but... thank you Flames. I need a shower now. That is pretty greasy
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Post by Bronco73 on Apr 5, 2022 18:40:14 GMT -7
Can't believe I'm saying this but... thank you Flames. I need a shower now. you disgust me.
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Post by drtaf on Apr 6, 2022 8:35:51 GMT -7
Can't believe I'm saying this but... thank you Flames. I need a shower now. you disgust me. It's the Art of War now! The enemy of my enemy is my Friend
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Post by windsoroiler on Apr 8, 2022 5:13:10 GMT -7
95 pts seems to be thrown around. IDK, may need more points than that...
Oilers 3-7 Kings 4-4-1 (only 9 games left)
Knights 6-3-1
Given Vegas's easy schedule the 6-3-1 seems quite doable to get to 95 pts. We shall see.
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 8, 2022 7:05:09 GMT -7
95 pts seems to be thrown around. IDK, may need more points than that...
Oilers 3-7 Kings 4-4-1 (only 9 games left)
Knights 6-3-1
Given Vegas's easy schedule the 6-3-1 seems quite doable to get to 95 pts. We shall see.
I said 96 points, but you're right, that is looking borderline for the wildcard spots. Looking at sportsclubstats.com 96 points would still give us a 90% chance of playoffs. If we go 3-4-3 from here we'll end up with 99 points. In other words WE ARE IN!
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Post by windsoroiler on Apr 8, 2022 7:42:23 GMT -7
95 pts seems to be thrown around. IDK, may need more points than that... Oilers 3-7 Kings 4-4-1 (only 9 games left)
Knights 6-3-1 Given Vegas's easy schedule the 6-3-1 seems quite doable to get to 95 pts. We shall see.
I said 96 points, but you're right, that is looking borderline for the wildcard spots. Looking at sportsclubstats.com 96 points would still give us a 90% chance of playoffs. If we go 3-4-3 from here we'll end up with 99 points. In other words WE ARE IN! Wasn't specific to anyone, was the consensus last month. Now with 10 games left things have changed a little bit. Usually you need 92-94pts, 96 pts sounds about right.
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 8, 2022 8:08:34 GMT -7
I said 96 points, but you're right, that is looking borderline for the wildcard spots. Looking at sportsclubstats.com 96 points would still give us a 90% chance of playoffs. If we go 3-4-3 from here we'll end up with 99 points. In other words WE ARE IN!Wasn't specific to anyone, was the consensus last month. Now with 10 games left things have changed a little bit. Usually you need 92-94pts, 96 pts sounds about right. Oh, I didn't take it like it was aimed at me. I was just saying that a few weeks ago I'd said that 96 was enough, then most teams in the race all kept winning so the number moved up. Doesn't matter, I suppose. I like where we are at!
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Post by drtaf on Apr 8, 2022 8:33:57 GMT -7
95 pts seems to be thrown around. IDK, may need more points than that...
Oilers 3-7 Kings 4-4-1 (only 9 games left)
Knights 6-3-1
Given Vegas's easy schedule the 6-3-1 seems quite doable to get to 95 pts. We shall see.
I said 96 points, but you're right, that is looking borderline for the wildcard spots. Looking at sportsclubstats.com 96 points would still give us a 90% chance of playoffs. If we go 3-4-3 from here we'll end up with 99 points. In other words WE ARE IN! Bold prediction there Cotton!!! However, assuming Flames and Avs are in, we have 7 teams going for 6 spots and we are comfortably 3rd out of those 7 teams so we have to drop 4 spots to lose out. It's looking good, but I'm still keeping my powder dry in the meantime!!!
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