onebit
Oilers Roster
Posts: 291
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Post by onebit on Apr 8, 2022 9:29:49 GMT -7
At the risk of negativity, I'm still less confident than others here.
With 12 games to go, the preds have 8 against playoff teams. Of those 8, 6 are against monsters. If they manage .500 hockey, they'll sit at 98 points.
The Oilers have 10 left with 4 against monsters. If they win 60%, they end with 101 points.
The Kings have 9 left but 7 against non-playoff teams. Should they win all 7, they finish with 100.
The Knights have 12 left with only 2 against upper end teams but none vs monsters. They could win anywhere from 8- 10 of these games. If they win 8, they also have 98. Win 10 and they are at 102.
The Stars could also win 8 getting them to 100.
Overall, 5 teams potentially within 3 points of each other at the end so yes, the math is in our favor but the margin razor thin.
The joys of being a hockey fan. GOG!!!
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 8, 2022 9:42:46 GMT -7
At the risk of negativity, I'm still less confident than others here. With 12 games to go, the preds have 8 against playoff teams. Of those 8, 6 are against monsters. If they manage .500 hockey, they'll sit at 98 points. The Oilers have 10 left with 4 against monsters. If they win 60%, they end with 101 points. The Kings have 9 left but 7 against non-playoff teams. Should they win all 7, they finish with 100. The Knights have 12 left with only 2 against upper end teams but none vs monsters. They could win anywhere from 8- 10 of these games. If they win 8, they also have 98. Win 10 and they are at 102. The Stars could also win 8 getting them to 100. Overall, 5 teams potentially within 3 points of each other at the end so yes, the math is in our favor but the margin razor thin. The joys of being a hockey fan. GOG!!! I'm just looking at the line of the 2nd wildcard. We're 7 points above the line, and 3 teams are between us and the line. With only 10 games left, it's hard to see a way that the line could move past us.
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Post by drtaf on Apr 8, 2022 10:21:18 GMT -7
At the risk of negativity, I'm still less confident than others here. With 12 games to go, the preds have 8 against playoff teams. Of those 8, 6 are against monsters. If they manage .500 hockey, they'll sit at 98 points. The Oilers have 10 left with 4 against monsters. If they win 60%, they end with 101 points. The Kings have 9 left but 7 against non-playoff teams. Should they win all 7, they finish with 100. The Knights have 12 left with only 2 against upper end teams but none vs monsters. They could win anywhere from 8- 10 of these games. If they win 8, they also have 98. Win 10 and they are at 102. The Stars could also win 8 getting them to 100. Overall, 5 teams potentially within 3 points of each other at the end so yes, the math is in our favor but the margin razor thin. The joys of being a hockey fan. GOG!!! I'm just looking at the line of the 2nd wildcard. We're 7 points above the line, and 3 teams are between us and the line. With only 10 games left, it's hard to see a way that the line could move past us. Exactly! This might be possible if all the teams were to play other teams out of conference, but as in the case last night when we beat LA, a lot of the games left for the 7 teams i mentioned battling for the 6 playoff spots are against each other, so when 1 wins, de-facto, another loses. So its actually impossible for all teams to win all their games, or even most of their games when you drill down. For me, Historically I've never heard of a team missing playoffs with 98pts. In fact i just googled it and 96pts was the most any team has had that has missed so I'd say 98pts guarantees us a spot(97 likely as well). We have 89 with 10 games left, therefore we need 8-9pts from 10 games or just below .500 and we make it. If we go below .500 in last 10 games then we probably dont deserve to make it!
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Post by blackhawk216 on Apr 8, 2022 11:33:00 GMT -7
At the risk of negativity, I'm still less confident than others here. With 12 games to go, the preds have 8 against playoff teams. Of those 8, 6 are against monsters. If they manage .500 hockey, they'll sit at 98 points. The Oilers have 10 left with 4 against monsters. If they win 60%, they end with 101 points. The Kings have 9 left but 7 against non-playoff teams. Should they win all 7, they finish with 100. The Knights have 12 left with only 2 against upper end teams but none vs monsters. They could win anywhere from 8- 10 of these games. If they win 8, they also have 98. Win 10 and they are at 102. The Stars could also win 8 getting them to 100. Overall, 5 teams potentially within 3 points of each other at the end so yes, the math is in our favor but the margin razor thin. The joys of being a hockey fan. GOG!!! And I could win the lottery this week............but the odds are dramatically against it...... . The way the Oilers are playing currently is good enough for me, and I am convinced we will make the play offs...........and furthermore, possibly even do some unexpected damage once in them.
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Post by igibb on Apr 8, 2022 11:52:57 GMT -7
I think we will make the playoffs without too much trouble my concern is once there. Our inability to hold leads or play smart with a lead worries me as we don't have the luxury of Bettman's gimmicky OT and SO's rules to save our asses come playoffs. We have been less than successful when we have to play real OT in the McDavid era going 1-6.
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Post by drtaf on Apr 8, 2022 11:58:48 GMT -7
I think we will make the playoffs my concern is once there. Our inability to hold leads or play smart with a lead worries me as we don't have the luxury of Bettman's gimmicky OT and SO's rules to save our asses come playoffs. We have been less than successful when we have to play real OT in the McDavid era going 1-6. Definitely a concern, but I also recently lamented as to why the oilers couldn't keep the opposition under 3 goals a game and now they've done that in 3 successive road games (all wins). In a "3-2" league, we beat our likely playoff opponent 3-2 in their barn last night. All very small sample sizes to be sure but at least we are trending in right direction at the right time and out of all the teams left in the west playoff race (I say that's 9), LA to me would be the most beatable, so if we stay the present course I for one wont complain if that's how it pans out.
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Post by igibb on Apr 8, 2022 12:19:37 GMT -7
I think we will make the playoffs my concern is once there. Our inability to hold leads or play smart with a lead worries me as we don't have the luxury of Bettman's gimmicky OT and SO's rules to save our asses come playoffs. We have been less than successful when we have to play real OT in the McDavid era going 1-6. Definitely a concern, but I also recently lamented as to why the oilers couldn't keep the opposition under 3 goals a game and now they've done that in 3 successive road games (all wins). In a "3-2" league, we beat our likely playoff opponent 3-2 in their barn last night. All very small sample sizes to be sure but at least we are trending in right direction at the right time and out of all the teams left in the west playoff race (I say that's 9), LA to me would be the most beatable, so if we stay the present course I for one wont complain if that's how it pans out. True but they will also probably get back their top defenceman and possibly a top RWer from injury before the playoffs.
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onebit
Oilers Roster
Posts: 291
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Post by onebit on Apr 8, 2022 13:11:09 GMT -7
I'm just looking at the line of the 2nd wildcard. We're 7 points above the line, and 3 teams are between us and the line. With only 10 games left, it's hard to see a way that the line could move past us. Exactly! This might be possible if all the teams were to play other teams out of conference, but as in the case last night when we beat LA, a lot of the games left for the 7 teams i mentioned battling for the 6 playoff spots are against each other, so when 1 wins, de-facto, another loses. So its actually impossible for all teams to win all their games, or even most of their games when you drill down. For me, Historically I've never heard of a team missing playoffs with 98pts. In fact i just googled it and 96pts was the most any team has had that has missed so I'd say 98pts guarantees us a spot(97 likely as well). We have 89 with 10 games left, therefore we need 8-9pts from 10 games or just below .500 and we make it. If we go below .500 in last 10 games then we probably dont deserve to make it! Absolutely true Doc but in the Bettman loser point Era, 2 OT losses equals one win. Right now our greatest enemy is 3-point games. (Kinda has been all year) I put our chances of success at 80+%. Then again, I put our chances of winning games that we lead by 3 goals or more at 80% yet the Oilers always seem to find a way to make things exciting. It just wouldn't shock me if we won the last game of the year to make the playoffs by a single point. Edit: also, fwiw, the contesting teams have very few games left against other contesting teams. They either playing "already in" or "already out" teams with very few 4-pointers still to go. Very strange year in that regard.
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Post by happyhappy on Apr 9, 2022 6:16:03 GMT -7
Can't count the Knights out just yet fellas. A win at home today vs the Yotes and suddenly they'll be only 2 points back of L.A. with equal amount of games played except Vegas has more regulation wins. Kings probably have the easier remaining schedule however. I'd be fairly confident playing either of these teams first round. Tight race, good stuff.
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 9, 2022 11:02:47 GMT -7
Can't count the Knights out just yet fellas. A win at home today vs the Yotes and suddenly they'll be only 2 points back of L.A. with equal amount of games played except Vegas has more regulation wins. Kings probably have the easier remaining schedule however. I'd be fairly confident playing either of these teams first round. Tight race, good stuff. Vegas is going to get Stone back for the playoffs. They'll be a tough out. I'd much rather have LA in the first round.
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Post by Bronco73 on Apr 9, 2022 14:09:37 GMT -7
Can't count the Knights out just yet fellas. A win at home today vs the Yotes and suddenly they'll be only 2 points back of L.A. with equal amount of games played except Vegas has more regulation wins. Kings probably have the easier remaining schedule however. I'd be fairly confident playing either of these teams first round. Tight race, good stuff. Vegas is going to get Stone back for the playoffs. They'll be a tough out. I'd much rather have LA in the first round. they will be a tough out regardless. Just wait until Eichel starts finding his groove.
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Post by happyhappy on Apr 9, 2022 14:42:48 GMT -7
I'd probably prefer L.A. over Vegas as well, both would be good series and both teams when fully healthy are dangerous for sure. I see the Stars lost to the Devils today...shucks. Preds are in tough tonight vs an always deadly Panthers team whom like us have also won 6 in a row. Blues and Wild look to be battling for home ice and second place in the Central, both tied with 92pts. Wild with a game in hand. The Central division race is as exciting as the Pacific division. It's definitely scoreboard watching season! GOG!!
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 9, 2022 15:16:12 GMT -7
Vegas is going to get Stone back for the playoffs. They'll be a tough out. I'd much rather have LA in the first round. they will be a tough out regardless. Just wait until Eichel starts finding his groove. He's got 5 goals in his last 6 games. It's happening. Other than having to play against him, I'm glad he's in the West so we get to watch him more. I knew he was good but hardly saw him when he was in Buffalo.
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Post by drtaf on Apr 9, 2022 16:15:56 GMT -7
I’d love to see Vegas get 1st WC so flames have to play them😉 they have a 1st round exit tradition to uphold!!
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Post by windsoroiler on Apr 9, 2022 16:49:53 GMT -7
Dallas lost, Preds are losing. Hope Vegas can somehow lose too...
There is talk of calling up Hollaway to play with Nuge, with Kass and Ryan there, not much going on. See how they match up...
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Post by neufab94 on Apr 9, 2022 20:26:42 GMT -7
If Vegas wins tonight they will be only 2 pts back of the Kings and 84 pts along with the Stars. I hate both teams yet dislike the idea of 5 teams from the Central more.
I think the Oilers will end up playing LA and I don't mind that match up for the 1st round even though their games have been a grind. So, hoping that the Stars fall apart and 4 come out of the Pacific: flamers, Oilers, LA, Vegas.
Oilers have been playing pretty good but I think they can amp it up a little more yet. Having a full roster has been fun to watch. Some tough games down the stretch so let's see a strong finish in preparation for the playoffs! Go Oilers go!
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onebit
Oilers Roster
Posts: 291
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Post by onebit on Apr 10, 2022 16:46:05 GMT -7
Thank you Pittsburg and Minnesota.
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Post by AlwaysOil on Apr 10, 2022 17:16:24 GMT -7
If Vegas wins tonight they will be only 2 pts back of the Kings and 84 pts along with the Stars. I hate both teams yet dislike the idea of 5 teams from the Central more. I think the Oilers will end up playing LA and I don't mind that match up for the 1st round even though their games have been a grind. So, hoping that the Stars fall apart and 4 come out of the Pacific: flamers, Oilers, LA, Vegas. Oilers have been playing pretty good but I think they can amp it up a little more yet. Having a full roster has been fun to watch. Some tough games down the stretch so let's see a strong finish in preparation for the playoffs! Go Oilers go! I don’t see how LA makes it in. They have an easier schedule but their play of late is opposite Vegas’. Not enough games in hand. Maybe if Dallas falls apart.
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Post by Bronco73 on Apr 10, 2022 19:34:30 GMT -7
If Vegas wins tonight they will be only 2 pts back of the Kings and 84 pts along with the Stars. I hate both teams yet dislike the idea of 5 teams from the Central more. I think the Oilers will end up playing LA and I don't mind that match up for the 1st round even though their games have been a grind. So, hoping that the Stars fall apart and 4 come out of the Pacific: flamers, Oilers, LA, Vegas. Oilers have been playing pretty good but I think they can amp it up a little more yet. Having a full roster has been fun to watch. Some tough games down the stretch so let's see a strong finish in preparation for the playoffs! Go Oilers go! I don’t see how LA makes it in. They have an easier schedule but their play of late is opposite Vegas’. Not enough games in hand. Maybe if Dallas falls apart. Which bodes VERY well for Edmonton. At this point we need to stay ahead of either Vegas or Los Angeles. Either one guarantees us a playoff spot. If they both pass us, then we have to really scoreboard watch for Dallas and Nashville to fail.
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Post by fogolin2 on Apr 11, 2022 7:17:18 GMT -7
Got a great chance to grab a few more points this week. If we play like we did against Colorado, we'll be fine.
sportsclubstats has us at over 97% to make it. Buckle up ya'll! we're goin!!
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