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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 19:43:27 GMT -7
We've got a a couple of threads about trades and contracts, but with the trade deadline in a few weeks I thought it might be a good time to start a 'Big Picture' thread.
With the Cap being flat for at least next year, and I think one more after that, every team will face some tough choices.
There are already some teams in seller-mode and I think we're a buyer at this point. A couple of players that could be available are Jake Debrusk and Conor Garland. It sounds like the Predators are open for business, and Ryan Ellis is in the mix. In our own division Ottawa and Vancouver are out, and the Flames are in the box with the lid closing. The Ducks and Sharks are out of their race. Sabres and Devils are toast. In the Central, the Red Wings were done before they started the year. Are they willing to do business with KH? Is that bridge burned?
We've got some UFA questions of our own to answer with Nuge, Barrie, Larsson, and a possible vacancy in net (maybe Stalock is the answer?).
With a load of cap room for 2021-22, but only 15 players under contract, Kenny has some work to do.
Do you think we should push some chips in for a run this year? One of the Canadian teams is in the semi-Finals. That's a rare opportunity. We've got some good prospects, but no 2nd or 3rd round picks this year.
Are we willing to part with young players/prospects for an established player/rental? I'm thinking of upgrading Kahun with Debrusk? Salary is going to be an issue with every potential discussion.
Nothing is going to be easy, but we've got a good team and IMO we should be looking to maximize current success and the prime of 97&29.
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Post by Bronco73 on Mar 24, 2021 19:55:52 GMT -7
honestly I'd go for it. We may be 10'th overall right now, but we are third overall in outright wins and only 4 points out of second overall in the league. Stretch a few of our losses into overtime and we are right up there among the top three teams in the league right now. We are literally 2 maybe 3 pieces away from being good enough to challenge for the cup IMO.
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 20:08:11 GMT -7
honestly I'd go for it. We may be 10'th overall right now, but we are third overall in outright wins and only 4 points out of second overall in the league. Stretch a few of our losses into overtime and we are right up there among the top three teams in the league right now. We are literally 2 maybe 3 pieces away from being good enough to challenge for the cup IMO. Combine with that, the 1-Cdn-Team is in the Final 4 thing, and I'm totally with you....The question is; how do we get those pieces? Because of the Loui connection, I feel like we have a good shot at Jake Debrusk. At $3.675 through next year. Boston has only 5 active dmen on Capfriendly....would they take Russell + Benson?? We've been stocking up on dmen. Maybe it's time to spend some of that capital?
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Post by Marshall Bruce Mathers III on Mar 24, 2021 20:16:24 GMT -7
honestly I'd go for it. We may be 10'th overall right now, but we are third overall in outright wins and only 4 points out of second overall in the league. Stretch a few of our losses into overtime and we are right up there among the top three teams in the league right now. We are literally 2 maybe 3 pieces away from being good enough to challenge for the cup IMO. Combine with that, the 1-Cdn-Team is in the Final 4 thing, and I'm totally with you....The question is; how do we get those pieces? Because of the Loui connection, I feel like we have a good shot at Jake Debrusk. At $3.675 through next year. Boston has only 5 active dmen on Capfriendly....would they take Russell + Benson?? We've been stocking up on dmen. Maybe it's time to spend some of that capital? Boston would likely be looking for Larsson in return. He fits their mould.
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Post by Bronco73 on Mar 24, 2021 20:17:54 GMT -7
honestly I'd go for it. We may be 10'th overall right now, but we are third overall in outright wins and only 4 points out of second overall in the league. Stretch a few of our losses into overtime and we are right up there among the top three teams in the league right now. We are literally 2 maybe 3 pieces away from being good enough to challenge for the cup IMO. Combine with that, the 1-Cdn-Team is in the Final 4 thing, and I'm totally with you....The question is; how do we get those pieces? Because of the Loui connection, I feel like we have a good shot at Jake Debrusk. At $3.675 through next year. Boston has only 5 active dmen on Capfriendly....would they take Russell + Benson?? We've been stocking up on dmen. Maybe it's time to spend some of that capital? yup exactly. and the great thing about it is that D men are at a premium in the league right now. Bargain from a position of strength to address a position of weakness... move some D for some forward and goalie help. we can do it, and I think KH sees that we have a legit shot over the next couple of years to go for the cup.
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Post by drtaf on Mar 24, 2021 20:22:38 GMT -7
I think the chance of a conf final means we have to "Try" at least. I'd definitely do that deal Fog if it was an option. I'd love to see what it would take to get garland as he's on min wage and could be fit under cap easily and he'd still be RFA after this year. no idea if he's a late developer or a 1-hit wonder but worth the risk. Ellis would be worth looking into in off-season when we have better idea of whether we can sign barrie or larsson (to good deals) or even if klef will be back? dont think we could squeeze his $6M salary atm though.
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onebit
Oilers Roster
Posts: 291
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Post by onebit on Mar 24, 2021 20:32:20 GMT -7
I think it's an "approach with caution" situation. It's hard to guage where we really are having only played against Northern teams. How do we stack up against TBL, VGK, Panthers, NYI or Caps? IOW, how close to contenders are we?
If the proposed Kahun + Benson for DeBrusk deal could be done, I'd do it if there's a high probability of signing JD for 2 or 3 more years.
IMO, this year feels so much like a crapshoot that I'd hate to leverage too much future for a win-now gamble.
Just my One-bit.
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 20:32:25 GMT -7
I think the chance of a conf final means we have to "Try" at least. I'd definitely do that deal Fog if it was an option. I'd love to see what it would take to get garland as he's on min wage and could be fit under cap easily and he'd still be RFA after this year. no idea if he's a late developer or a 1-hit wonder but worth the risk. Ellis would be worth looking into in off-season when we have better idea of whether we can sign barrie or larsson (to good deals) or even if klef will be back? dont think we could squeeze his $6M salary atm though. I know it won't be popular, but I would ask about Bear for Garland....similar questions about each of them, and we've got Bouchard waiting for a chance.
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Post by Marshall Bruce Mathers III on Mar 24, 2021 20:34:08 GMT -7
I think the chance of a conf final means we have to "Try" at least. I'd definitely do that deal Fog if it was an option. I'd love to see what it would take to get garland as he's on min wage and could be fit under cap easily and he'd still be RFA after this year. no idea if he's a late developer or a 1-hit wonder but worth the risk. Ellis would be worth looking into in off-season when we have better idea of whether we can sign barrie or larsson (to good deals) or even if klef will be back? dont think we could squeeze his $6M salary atm though. I know it won't be popular, but I would ask about Bear for Garland....similar questions about each of them, and we've got Bouchard waiting for a chance. My only issue with trading Bear is we're weak on the right side. What if Larsson and Barrie don't re-sign? Bouchard instantly becomes 1RD.
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 20:42:25 GMT -7
I know it won't be popular, but I would ask about Bear for Garland....similar questions about each of them, and we've got Bouchard waiting for a chance. My only issue with trading Bear is we're weak on the right side. What if Larsson and Barrie don't re-sign? Bouchard instantly becomes 1RD. Fair. I was looking at future Cap but not future depth. Certainly part of the gamble for this Year's run.... But, if we lose Barrie to $6mX5 on the UFA market we will have some veteran callers for our 1rd spot. Even if they're all one-and-done.
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Post by Marshall Bruce Mathers III on Mar 24, 2021 20:45:03 GMT -7
My only issue with trading Bear is we're weak on the right side. What if Larsson and Barrie don't re-sign? Bouchard instantly becomes 1RD. Fair. I was looking at future Cap but not future depth. Certainly part of the gamble for this Year's run.... But, if we lose Barrie to $6mX5 on the UFA market we will have some veteran callers for our 1rd spot. Even if they're all one-and-done. The RD UFA pickings are quite slim. Barrie may be the best option and only viable option.
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Post by windsoroiler on Mar 24, 2021 20:59:53 GMT -7
What about the expansion draft
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 21:05:22 GMT -7
I think it's an "approach with caution" situation. It's hard to guage where we really are having only played against Northern teams. How do we stack up against TBL, VGK, Panthers, NYI or Caps? IOW, how close to contenders are we? If the proposed Kahun + Benson for DeBrusk deal could be done, I'd do it if there's a high probability of signing JD for 2 or 3 more years. IMO, this year feels so much like a crapshoot that I'd hate to leverage too much future for a win-now gamble. Just my One-bit. That's totally fair. I just think that we're seeing the best McD yet, and Drai is in great form as well. This won't last forever, and Edmonton still won't be a UFA destination. IMO Kahun and Benson don't get it done. They're not taking 2 non-NHLers for an NHLer. They need an NHL dman, maybe two of them. Russell at $1.25m next year might have some appeal.
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 21:07:33 GMT -7
What about the expansion draft Good point. I was more focused on Cap and Cup. What are your thoughts on the Kracken? What should we do?
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Post by Marshall Bruce Mathers III on Mar 24, 2021 21:37:52 GMT -7
What about the expansion draft Good point. I was more focused on Cap and Cup. What are your thoughts on the Kracken? What should we do? If CapFriendly is correct in who’s up for exposure: McDavid Draisaitl Nuge Kass Archie Puljujärvi Yamamoto Nurse Bear Lagesson Skinner Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by AlwaysOil on Mar 24, 2021 21:38:52 GMT -7
The only reason to push it is the northern division advantage we get this year. I’ve felt for awhile that next year was the target of starting to take a run at the cup with cap space,etc.
I might be more inclined to keep my powder dry. If I’m KH ( and I’m not, but I do know a thing or two about winning) I’m putting it out there to all the agents that if your boy wants a shot at a cup, he’d better sign with us at a discount. As well as we’ve done, I’d look to upgrade the goalie for next year. Our success this year I think will make us a UFA destination as it was with Lucic, but we need to be signing from a position of strength and not having the player dictate unreasonable $ or term. More Barries.
Just me. I’m not opposed to going for it all this year, but I just don’t want to gut the next few years if we run into a hot goalie this year. The odds to me say think of the next 2-5 years and make sure you have a strong team around that and one of those years we should win the cup. A 33% chance over 5 years is better than a 70% chance over 1 year.
And I’m also thinking that even if we win this year I still want to be competitive when 97 is UFA and choosing where he re signs.
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Post by windsoroiler on Mar 24, 2021 21:46:15 GMT -7
What about the expansion draft Good point. I was more focused on Cap and Cup. What are your thoughts on the Kracken? What should we do? I dunno who we have to protect and who is exempt. For example Lag depending on how many games he plays will determine if we would have to protect him or not. Will we have handshake deals in place to sign Larsson and or Barrie after the draft? Say we get a top 6 forward like debrusk he would need to be protected or you would be getting a rental only. Watch Stall play tonight and I'm not sure that's a good move either. Hall either
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 21:56:00 GMT -7
The only reason to push it is the northern division advantage we get this year. I’ve felt for awhile that next year was the target of starting to take a run at the cup with cap space,etc. I might be more inclined to keep my powder dry. If I’m KH ( and I’m not, but I do know a thing or two about winning) I’m putting it out there to all the agents that if your boy wants a shot at a cup, he’d better sign with us at a discount. As well as we’ve done, I’d look to upgrade the goalie for next year. Our success this year I think will make us a UFA destination as it was with Lucic, but we need to be signing from a position of strength and not having the player dictate unreasonable $ or term. More Barries. Just me. I’m not opposed to going for it all this year, but I just don’t want to gut the next few years if we run into a hot goalie this year. The odds to me say think of the next 2-5 years and make sure you have a strong team around that and one of those years we should win the cup. A 33% chance over 5 years is better than a 70% chance over 1 year. And I’m also thinking that even if we win this year I still want to be competitive when 97 is UFA and choosing where he re signs. I agree to a point. Next year, we certainly have more options Cap wise. The other side of that coin is that when we signed Lucic, he was a hot ticket. When we got Barrie, he was coming off the worst year of his career. There was no guarantee it was going to work out, at all. I don't think we'll ever really be a 'destination' for UFA so I feel some urgency to go hard after years where we have a decent shot. This could be peak McDavid, and with the North Division thing this year, there's an added opportunity. Also, if KH makes the right moves we can have the same or more Cap flexibility going forward.
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Post by fogolin2 on Mar 24, 2021 21:58:25 GMT -7
Good point. I was more focused on Cap and Cup. What are your thoughts on the Kracken? What should we do? I dunno who we have to protect and who is exempt. For example Lag depending on how many games he plays will determine if we would have to protect him or not. Will we have handshake deals in place to sign Larsson and or Barrie after the draft? Say we get a top 6 forward like debrusk he would need to be protected or you would be getting a rental only. Watch Stall play tonight and I'm not sure that's a good move either. Hall either I watched some of thee Sabres game...good lord....the only guy of that team that interests me is Reinhart. What a train wreck. What about Nuge if he doesn't have a deal? If you can only keep one at $6mil, do you keep Nuge or Barrie?
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Post by windsoroiler on Mar 24, 2021 22:08:50 GMT -7
I dunno who we have to protect and who is exempt. For example Lag depending on how many games he plays will determine if we would have to protect him or not. Will we have handshake deals in place to sign Larsson and or Barrie after the draft? Say we get a top 6 forward like debrusk he would need to be protected or you would be getting a rental only. Watch Stall play tonight and I'm not sure that's a good move either. Hall either I watched some of thee Sabres game...good lord....the only guy of that team that interests me is Reinhart. What a train wreck. What about Nuge if he doesn't have a deal? If you can only keep one at $6mil, do you keep Nuge or Barrie? Forgot about Nuge, you could have a handshake deal with him too without needing to protect him. If I'm correct... For me it depends on term. Look at Russell he took quite the pay cut to get locked in for next year. He's in his early thirties. I see Turris and Nuge as very similar players to tell you the truth. And he's only 31. If I recall Barrie had an off year but he lead all the leafs D in scoring. Ahead of Reilly who is a heck of a D. Still very productive for an off year. He had more money to play elsewhere but chose Edmonton. At least that's what we all heard. I like Debrusk, I like Reinhart. The other problem is it will take 3 weeks to get these players. So whatever asset you give up you are without both assets for 3 weeks. Very hard to trade with a US team for this reason
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